Skyrim:Prisoner's Plan

The storm is coming, I can tell. The water leaking in has become stronger. There's no better time than now.

When the storm hits the guards will be scrambling to figure out what to do with us. Amidst the confusion we need to overpower the few that will be standing guard outside our cells and hold off the cell block entrance. We need only hold off until I can get one of their swords and break open the drainage grate in the corner of my cell. That's where we'll make our escape. Everyone move down river and we'll try to find shelter there until the storm passes.